proengineer
10-15 02:59 PM
Interesting statistics posted on Ron Gotcher forum
Credit to Nolefan
Hello Ron,
I have been silent spectator for long and I greatly enjoy reading this blog. The knowledge you bring is great. The blog is very informative & insightful and has given us lots of useful information. I have been thinking of contributing to this blog for sometime related to Pending visa number and spillover topic and this is my first post regarding that.
Recently, I did some calculations on EB1 & EB spillover to EB2 India/China for FY 2010. Here are points I considered
* Average Consular processing numbers for EB1 & EB2 / year are based on historic data from 1998 to 2008. (Data is available on DHS site)
* All ROW EB1 & EB2 applications from following categories will be approved before spill over happens
o consular processing (EB1 & EB2)
o ROW (EB1 & EB2) + Mexico + Philippines
* most applications for India / China EB2 from 2004 and prior are approved except few as mentioned on CIS report.
* Even if there are EB2 ROW I140 applications are pending, they may not be more than few thousands (based historic EB2 usage from EB2 ROW). Based on economic conditions, I assumed 5000 new I485 applications after approval of I140.
Calculations
EB1 spill over
Total quota allowed: 40040
Average consular processing: 5290
AOS Pending: 4050
New applications: 2500
spill over from EB1 ~ 40040 - 5290 � 4050 � 2500
spill over from EB1~ 28500
EB2 spill over
Total quota allowed: 40040
Average consular processing: 2199
AOS Pending (ROW): 7871
New applications: 2500
spill over from EB1 ~ 40040 - 2199 � 7871 � 2500
spill over from EB1~ 27470
Total EB1 & EB2 spill over = 28500 + 27470
Total EB1 & EB2 spill over = 55970
EB4 spill over
Total quota allowed: 9800
Average visa numbers used: 7432�� based on data from 1998 to 2008
spill over = 2368
EB5 spill over
Total quota allowed: 9800
Average visa numbers used: 465 �� based on data from 1998 to 2008
2008 data: 1360
spill over : 8440
Total spill over for EB2 India / China: spill over from (EB1 + EB2 + EB3 + EB4)
i.e. 28500 + 27470 + 2368 + 8440 ..
Total spill over for EB2 India / China: 66778
Preadjudicated EB2 India / China applications ~ 51000
Total pending EB2 India / China ~ 67061
If spill over occurs quarterly, then I would expect EB2 India / China dates should faster throughout year may be current by end of FY 2010.
Credit to Nolefan
Hello Ron,
I have been silent spectator for long and I greatly enjoy reading this blog. The knowledge you bring is great. The blog is very informative & insightful and has given us lots of useful information. I have been thinking of contributing to this blog for sometime related to Pending visa number and spillover topic and this is my first post regarding that.
Recently, I did some calculations on EB1 & EB spillover to EB2 India/China for FY 2010. Here are points I considered
* Average Consular processing numbers for EB1 & EB2 / year are based on historic data from 1998 to 2008. (Data is available on DHS site)
* All ROW EB1 & EB2 applications from following categories will be approved before spill over happens
o consular processing (EB1 & EB2)
o ROW (EB1 & EB2) + Mexico + Philippines
* most applications for India / China EB2 from 2004 and prior are approved except few as mentioned on CIS report.
* Even if there are EB2 ROW I140 applications are pending, they may not be more than few thousands (based historic EB2 usage from EB2 ROW). Based on economic conditions, I assumed 5000 new I485 applications after approval of I140.
Calculations
EB1 spill over
Total quota allowed: 40040
Average consular processing: 5290
AOS Pending: 4050
New applications: 2500
spill over from EB1 ~ 40040 - 5290 � 4050 � 2500
spill over from EB1~ 28500
EB2 spill over
Total quota allowed: 40040
Average consular processing: 2199
AOS Pending (ROW): 7871
New applications: 2500
spill over from EB1 ~ 40040 - 2199 � 7871 � 2500
spill over from EB1~ 27470
Total EB1 & EB2 spill over = 28500 + 27470
Total EB1 & EB2 spill over = 55970
EB4 spill over
Total quota allowed: 9800
Average visa numbers used: 7432�� based on data from 1998 to 2008
spill over = 2368
EB5 spill over
Total quota allowed: 9800
Average visa numbers used: 465 �� based on data from 1998 to 2008
2008 data: 1360
spill over : 8440
Total spill over for EB2 India / China: spill over from (EB1 + EB2 + EB3 + EB4)
i.e. 28500 + 27470 + 2368 + 8440 ..
Total spill over for EB2 India / China: 66778
Preadjudicated EB2 India / China applications ~ 51000
Total pending EB2 India / China ~ 67061
If spill over occurs quarterly, then I would expect EB2 India / China dates should faster throughout year may be current by end of FY 2010.
wallpaper coach of NBC#39;s The Voice,
Keeme
04-16 12:50 PM
Ultimately everything boils down to corruption. Huge money is going down in the pockets of big media houses, it is so damn obvious...Hindustan times, IBN & NDTV carried pictures of Priyanka Gandhi's children for 3 days on the front page, I never saw pictures or anything on Chandrababu Naidu, Yedirappa, Badal, Gehlot, Shivraj Chauhan or for that reason anybody....these kids are more important than our grassroot leaders ? The family is talking about "Rahul kee Shaadee" and the whole media is printing that, nobody's asking them where were you and what you did in last 5 years ???
www.theatlantic.com/doc/200904/india-modi - Intresting article on Narendra Modi.
www.theatlantic.com/doc/200904/india-modi - Intresting article on Narendra Modi.
sledge_hammer
02-16 08:27 AM
Great find!
I guess all the talk about suing USCIS will go down the toilet based on this excerpt from the article -
"Assuming that under the plenary power doctrine noncitizens possess few, if any, constitutional protections with respect to entering the country, the implications of racial and national origin exclusions on citizens must be considered. Because the Constitution unquestionably protects the rights of citizens, citizens claiming injury have a better chance at successfully challenging the immigration laws than noncitizens directly affected by their operation. Courts have recognized that citizens in certain circumstances may challenge the lawfulness of immigration laws because of the impact on their rights."
oguinan,
Paragraph 1 of Article 1 establishes the definition of racial discrimination for the purpose of the document. Paragraphs 2 and 3 limit the operation of the convention. As to why paragraphs 2 & 3 were included, perhaps they were required to get countries to sign on to the convention.
Here's a better link. Read under Modern Racial Exclusion, excerpts of which I have posted below.
http://academic.udayton.edu/race/02rights/immigr09.htm
...similarly situated persons (e.g., siblings and children of U.S. citizens) may face radically different waits for immigration depending on their country of origin, with accompanying racial impacts.
The law created a new immigrant visa program that effectively represents affirmative action for white immigrants, a group that benefitted from preferential treatment under the national origins quota system until 1965. Congress, in an ironic twist of political jargon, established the "diversity" visa program, which though facially neutral prefers immigrants from nations populated primarily by white people.
The link to the CERD report is here. The convention does not address the country limit directly as the convention expressly does not apply in that area, but it does show that there is awareness about the discrimination faced by immigrants. http://www.unhchr.ch/tbs/doc.nsf/(Symbol)/6d8aee7e356e6498c1256d4e00557f3b?Opendocument
You can see that the UN panel is aware of the fact that racial discrimination manifests itself in disproportional representation (note the reference to the composition of the Supreme Court). It can be argued that the 7% country limit provides a pretext to discriminate against India/China/Mexico on the basis of ethnic or racial origin, and as such would run afoul of the convention.
I guess all the talk about suing USCIS will go down the toilet based on this excerpt from the article -
"Assuming that under the plenary power doctrine noncitizens possess few, if any, constitutional protections with respect to entering the country, the implications of racial and national origin exclusions on citizens must be considered. Because the Constitution unquestionably protects the rights of citizens, citizens claiming injury have a better chance at successfully challenging the immigration laws than noncitizens directly affected by their operation. Courts have recognized that citizens in certain circumstances may challenge the lawfulness of immigration laws because of the impact on their rights."
oguinan,
Paragraph 1 of Article 1 establishes the definition of racial discrimination for the purpose of the document. Paragraphs 2 and 3 limit the operation of the convention. As to why paragraphs 2 & 3 were included, perhaps they were required to get countries to sign on to the convention.
Here's a better link. Read under Modern Racial Exclusion, excerpts of which I have posted below.
http://academic.udayton.edu/race/02rights/immigr09.htm
...similarly situated persons (e.g., siblings and children of U.S. citizens) may face radically different waits for immigration depending on their country of origin, with accompanying racial impacts.
The law created a new immigrant visa program that effectively represents affirmative action for white immigrants, a group that benefitted from preferential treatment under the national origins quota system until 1965. Congress, in an ironic twist of political jargon, established the "diversity" visa program, which though facially neutral prefers immigrants from nations populated primarily by white people.
The link to the CERD report is here. The convention does not address the country limit directly as the convention expressly does not apply in that area, but it does show that there is awareness about the discrimination faced by immigrants. http://www.unhchr.ch/tbs/doc.nsf/(Symbol)/6d8aee7e356e6498c1256d4e00557f3b?Opendocument
You can see that the UN panel is aware of the fact that racial discrimination manifests itself in disproportional representation (note the reference to the composition of the Supreme Court). It can be argued that the 7% country limit provides a pretext to discriminate against India/China/Mexico on the basis of ethnic or racial origin, and as such would run afoul of the convention.
2011 in on NBC for The Voice
ksrk
09-15 06:30 PM
Exactly, there are more EB application from India and most of them are older PD, so with no rule, all it means is that India will get bigger share.
But I thought the rule stated that the spillover can only be applied to over-subscribed countries in the FOURTH quarter of the fiscal year - meaning no sooner than June/July 2010 - or am I missing something here?
How can the VB get past March 2005 in December 2009? If it does, I'll be very happy! However, I would like to know if the estimate is realistic...and not over-optimistic.
But I thought the rule stated that the spillover can only be applied to over-subscribed countries in the FOURTH quarter of the fiscal year - meaning no sooner than June/July 2010 - or am I missing something here?
How can the VB get past March 2005 in December 2009? If it does, I'll be very happy! However, I would like to know if the estimate is realistic...and not over-optimistic.
more...
life99f
06-28 12:42 PM
Good idea. But I am going to TSC.
This is what I'm doing. I'm flying to Nebraska service center friday night. Will put my shelter in front on PO box and will remain there until Monday morning. Once the USCIS guy comes up to pick up the mails, I'm just going to hand deliver my paper before he even opens his mail box.
Want to join me ;)
This is what I'm doing. I'm flying to Nebraska service center friday night. Will put my shelter in front on PO box and will remain there until Monday morning. Once the USCIS guy comes up to pick up the mails, I'm just going to hand deliver my paper before he even opens his mail box.
Want to join me ;)
Mani
12-13 01:38 PM
I understand challenging the law could be a costly affair.
If congress can amend the law to exlclude country cap for Amensty programs and undocumented workers (Comprehensive Immigration Reform) then why should it be difficult to use the same yardstick for Employment-based category or any other category for that matter ?
If congress can amend the law to exlclude country cap for Amensty programs and undocumented workers (Comprehensive Immigration Reform) then why should it be difficult to use the same yardstick for Employment-based category or any other category for that matter ?
more...
Kodi
05-25 11:13 AM
Is there a site that gives step by step instructions to filing for canadian PR? Like what sort of documents you need and when?
2010 The wardrobe department at
vkrishn
07-21 02:39 PM
I shouldn't say "Nice to see so many bay area folsk with bad expereience". I should probably use the word Interesting instead of "nice".Sorry about that.
more...
ArkBird
07-26 06:51 PM
Here is one potential answer...
Yes, you will retire at 40 because no self-respecting person will come near you let alone hire you so I guess you will have to retire and that $xxxx/per month, please feel free to replace it with disability (of course mental!) benefits from your state! ;)
ArkBird
I am not with Amway or Quixtar but I think the folks with Amway/Quixtar are under represented on this thread and it's not fair :-)
Just to add another dimention to this thread I will play the devil's advocate :D
Here I go ...
You guys are all wasting your free time bitching on this thread where as we are spending all our free time growing our business. We will retire early as we would make $xxxx/month for nothing when we turn 40 and dont need to work anymore where as all you guys bitching about Amway / Quixtar will still be working hard at your jobs till 60.
What's your response ?
:D:D:D:D
Yes, you will retire at 40 because no self-respecting person will come near you let alone hire you so I guess you will have to retire and that $xxxx/per month, please feel free to replace it with disability (of course mental!) benefits from your state! ;)
ArkBird
I am not with Amway or Quixtar but I think the folks with Amway/Quixtar are under represented on this thread and it's not fair :-)
Just to add another dimention to this thread I will play the devil's advocate :D
Here I go ...
You guys are all wasting your free time bitching on this thread where as we are spending all our free time growing our business. We will retire early as we would make $xxxx/month for nothing when we turn 40 and dont need to work anymore where as all you guys bitching about Amway / Quixtar will still be working hard at your jobs till 60.
What's your response ?
:D:D:D:D
hair on NBC#39;s “The Voice”,
pappu
06-02 10:46 AM
country quota is not racial discrimination...u must be a fool to say that.
To change the country quota..they have to change the whole philosophy of immigration in this country... Equal opportunity for all...
Its absurd to try to change the country quota..we must try for recapture..instead..
Then how do you explain no country quotas for undocumented in CIR?
We need to strongly oppose reasons that we hear in favor of quotas because country quota is discriminatory.
To change the country quota..they have to change the whole philosophy of immigration in this country... Equal opportunity for all...
Its absurd to try to change the country quota..we must try for recapture..instead..
Then how do you explain no country quotas for undocumented in CIR?
We need to strongly oppose reasons that we hear in favor of quotas because country quota is discriminatory.
more...
cableman
08-30 10:53 AM
I would recommend you to search online such as http://www.monster.ca and apply for some positions. This is the only reliable way to test the Canadian job market. If you get positive responses, it tells you that your skill set is indeed in demand. If not, you should think twice before moving. Since Canada and US are next to each other, you can probably be able to go for interviews and to secure a job before moving. This way, you are sure that you will have a job when you move.
One reminder. Don't expect their jobs can pay you as good as what you are getting in US. The upside is the living standard is relatively lower in Canada especially compared to big cities like NYC and San Francisco. Also, you will have more vacations and no more worry of GC retrogression.
I did the PR Canadian immi. myself and got the approval. The process is straightforward . However, I hesitate to go there . From what I heard is diffucult to get IT job.
One reminder. Don't expect their jobs can pay you as good as what you are getting in US. The upside is the living standard is relatively lower in Canada especially compared to big cities like NYC and San Francisco. Also, you will have more vacations and no more worry of GC retrogression.
I did the PR Canadian immi. myself and got the approval. The process is straightforward . However, I hesitate to go there . From what I heard is diffucult to get IT job.
hot A preview of The Voice aired
iv_only_hope
07-25 06:42 PM
I dont know what this means. He said previously EB3 backlog is massive. So assuming40 percent of indians would give 160,000. Out of those assuming 50 percent for EB2 would give 80,000. Question: Is eb2:eb3 ration 50% ??
"I think that the numbers are generally accurate, but I disagree with the conclusion. In large part, I rely on what I was told in a conversation with the State Department officer responsible for calculating cutoff dates. He told me that the Indian E2 cutoff date is going to retrogress back to late 2002 or early 2003 in October. He said that the Indian E2 backlog is MASSIVE.
Looking at the total number of people who have filed AOS applications, or who have been reported as documentarily qualified to consular posts, we see a group of at least 400,000. This was as of a couple of months ago, after much of this year's quota had been used. I'm told that between 40% and 45% of the people in the known backlog are chargeable to India - and most of those are E2".
"I think that the numbers are generally accurate, but I disagree with the conclusion. In large part, I rely on what I was told in a conversation with the State Department officer responsible for calculating cutoff dates. He told me that the Indian E2 cutoff date is going to retrogress back to late 2002 or early 2003 in October. He said that the Indian E2 backlog is MASSIVE.
Looking at the total number of people who have filed AOS applications, or who have been reported as documentarily qualified to consular posts, we see a group of at least 400,000. This was as of a couple of months ago, after much of this year's quota had been used. I'm told that between 40% and 45% of the people in the known backlog are chargeable to India - and most of those are E2".
more...
house wallpaper Peacock Logo on
krishna.ahd
02-18 09:18 PM
This is actually a pretty good argument/statistic. However; it isn't specific to employment base but rather to worldwide level of immigration from all sources.
Even one inch wider gate also will reduce few years of waiting
Even one inch wider gate also will reduce few years of waiting
tattoo nights at 9pm on NBC.
amitga
02-15 02:39 PM
The counter argument to this statement is that when I was hired I was told that it would take 2-3 years to get the Green Card and then you can live in this country. I made certain investments, commitments in this country based on this fact. Now either I stay here as slave or loose on all those things that I did thinking that I will stay in this country forever or for next 10-15 yrs. Some of the problems that tied me to this country are :
1) Buying a house
2) Child education : Child cannot go back to home country and countinue education due to language of instruction.
3) Immovable Investments like 401K and not investing in my own country e.g. PF in India.
4) Making life insurances. I am too old to take a new life insurance as the premium will be too high and I cannot afford to pay my current life insurance as US as it would be difficult to them with my earnings in the home country.
And the list can go on and on. There are the things that habe tied me and I am no longer free to leave. If would have know earlier that the GC will take 10 years I would have not bought a house, left US before my kid started school, might have took a life insurance in home country etc. In fact same argument prevails that why were the dates made current last July. That send a wrong message and people made more investments.
Your above statement is true, but it doesn't apply to EB situation. A slave is not allowed to leave, you are allowed to leave time, at your free will. Its just that you chose not to leave. The correct description of the situation is - you are imposing slavery upon yourself and asking for remedy from the government. Isn't that correct? Jazzy is simply saying that you can leave if you don't like it. So you are not a slave. Its that simple.
Laws are pretty clear, its just that we are stuck in the process created by those laws and we want to call it "slavery".
This debate will have a conclusive output if we think from our mind instead from our heart. No point in getting emotional about the situation, this debate needs pragmatic thinking and discussion about the possible lawsuit.
Slavery is not a valid argument so no point in mentioning it. Also, whether of not we have a cause depends on the law and not on the logic or the emotional aspect of the debate.
1) Buying a house
2) Child education : Child cannot go back to home country and countinue education due to language of instruction.
3) Immovable Investments like 401K and not investing in my own country e.g. PF in India.
4) Making life insurances. I am too old to take a new life insurance as the premium will be too high and I cannot afford to pay my current life insurance as US as it would be difficult to them with my earnings in the home country.
And the list can go on and on. There are the things that habe tied me and I am no longer free to leave. If would have know earlier that the GC will take 10 years I would have not bought a house, left US before my kid started school, might have took a life insurance in home country etc. In fact same argument prevails that why were the dates made current last July. That send a wrong message and people made more investments.
Your above statement is true, but it doesn't apply to EB situation. A slave is not allowed to leave, you are allowed to leave time, at your free will. Its just that you chose not to leave. The correct description of the situation is - you are imposing slavery upon yourself and asking for remedy from the government. Isn't that correct? Jazzy is simply saying that you can leave if you don't like it. So you are not a slave. Its that simple.
Laws are pretty clear, its just that we are stuck in the process created by those laws and we want to call it "slavery".
This debate will have a conclusive output if we think from our mind instead from our heart. No point in getting emotional about the situation, this debate needs pragmatic thinking and discussion about the possible lawsuit.
Slavery is not a valid argument so no point in mentioning it. Also, whether of not we have a cause depends on the law and not on the logic or the emotional aspect of the debate.
more...
pictures The Voice
STAmisha
10-04 04:51 PM
thanks amisha..any idea about the identity card number is it the ssn number we have in US. i can fill in that number and make a copy and get it notarized.
bitu72,
Are you talking about column 19 (Identity card no.) in IMM8-Application Form ?
I put N/A. You dont need to put SSN or anything.
Thanks
bitu72,
Are you talking about column 19 (Identity card no.) in IMM8-Application Form ?
I put N/A. You dont need to put SSN or anything.
Thanks
dresses NBC hits-
GCVictim
08-25 04:14 PM
Dear Immigration Attorney,
My wife went India with her existing AP (not shown at airport), She already applied AP renewal before she leaves country. Can she come back to US using her new (renewed) AP? i.e. If I mailed that renewed approved AP to India,will she come back (carry) with that renewed approved AP.
If she comes with renewed AP, Will that effect anything with I-485 file?
My wife went India with her existing AP (not shown at airport), She already applied AP renewal before she leaves country. Can she come back to US using her new (renewed) AP? i.e. If I mailed that renewed approved AP to India,will she come back (carry) with that renewed approved AP.
If she comes with renewed AP, Will that effect anything with I-485 file?
more...
makeup NBC Heroes wallpaper 2 by
Rohan99
07-26 02:46 PM
I like this thread a lot. It is so relaxing, especially after reading "EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations).. " this thread is so intense, and uses 100% of brain capacity
You seem to be enjoying this thread. This should be lighten up - 2 :)
You seem to be enjoying this thread. This should be lighten up - 2 :)
girlfriend nbc adam rodriguez
PBECVictim
06-27 10:52 AM
If Dept of State finds by mid of the month all(not by country) EB3 or EB2 numbers consumed, then they may come back and say no more acceptance of particular category. But generally they don't want to do that for EB category applications, because it is difficult for them to evaluate, reason is some numbers from Family category will be transfered to EB categories.
It happened for EB2 India, in the month of July 2006 mid. All numbers for EB2 India were utilized before mid of July, but even then they didn't come back in the mid of the month. So they made it "U" in next bulletin.
Don't be panic...........
It happened for EB2 India, in the month of July 2006 mid. All numbers for EB2 India were utilized before mid of July, but even then they didn't come back in the mid of the month. So they made it "U" in next bulletin.
Don't be panic...........
hairstyles I have no proof of the culprit
morchu
06-05 04:17 PM
:) I thought it was understood by now, that without changes in law, there is no "speedup" (for 485 approvals). USCIS has been super efficient recently, what is missing is the "visa number".
We are not discussing justifications of US laws. We are trying to find ways within the existing laws, for speeding up our cases.
We are not discussing justifications of US laws. We are trying to find ways within the existing laws, for speeding up our cases.
Macaca
07-03 09:53 PM
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/07/02/ap3879453.html
This is an Associated Press Article. They sell articles to lot of web based media like Washington Post, New York Times, San Francisco Chronicle, CNN, etc.
The article was written yesterday and automatically appeared in all sites that subscribe to AP articles.
This is an Associated Press Article. They sell articles to lot of web based media like Washington Post, New York Times, San Francisco Chronicle, CNN, etc.
The article was written yesterday and automatically appeared in all sites that subscribe to AP articles.
Abilash
08-25 08:03 AM
Hi,
I have an approved H1B petition, but was given 221(g) during consular interview due to lack of license to practice my proffession in US. They instructed me to submit the license within one year to stamp the H1B visa.
Now I am comming to US on a Visitors visa to write the licensing exam and to get licenced.
I am aware of the possibility of changing status from Visitors visa to H1B after getting licence without leaving US, since I already have an approved H1B.
But I came to know that USCIS will take around 90 days to approve status change from Visitors visa to H1B.
Kindly clarify whether I can start working for my H1B employer immediately after filing status change with USCIS, or do I need to wait till the approval, to start working.
Also do I need to include 221(g) I received after my H1B consulate interveiw for the status change application.
Thank you very much in advance...
I have an approved H1B petition, but was given 221(g) during consular interview due to lack of license to practice my proffession in US. They instructed me to submit the license within one year to stamp the H1B visa.
Now I am comming to US on a Visitors visa to write the licensing exam and to get licenced.
I am aware of the possibility of changing status from Visitors visa to H1B after getting licence without leaving US, since I already have an approved H1B.
But I came to know that USCIS will take around 90 days to approve status change from Visitors visa to H1B.
Kindly clarify whether I can start working for my H1B employer immediately after filing status change with USCIS, or do I need to wait till the approval, to start working.
Also do I need to include 221(g) I received after my H1B consulate interveiw for the status change application.
Thank you very much in advance...
Post a Comment