angelfire76
01-03 02:31 PM
yes..agreed. But you are forgeting all the new EAD's (H4's) who will be part of the mix.
You have to compete with H4s on EAD (I might be generalizing here so apologies to anyone offended) you've got more serious issues than you have foreseen.
EAD is not a ticket to a high-paying job requiring a certain level of skill.
I feel this thread is going the way of a Programmer's guild forum in that "Now that I'm in the door, stop the offshoring" :D
You have to compete with H4s on EAD (I might be generalizing here so apologies to anyone offended) you've got more serious issues than you have foreseen.
EAD is not a ticket to a high-paying job requiring a certain level of skill.
I feel this thread is going the way of a Programmer's guild forum in that "Now that I'm in the door, stop the offshoring" :D
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venkygct
09-03 03:38 PM
^^^^^^^
illinois_alum
10-02 04:40 PM
Thx so much I got it..
For the "Class of ADmission" - if I have entered US on AP, do I enter "Parolee"
Yes - you should enter PAROLEE as status if you last entered the US on an AP document
For the "Class of ADmission" - if I have entered US on AP, do I enter "Parolee"
Yes - you should enter PAROLEE as status if you last entered the US on an AP document
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bestia
08-31 04:17 PM
should be taken with a huge grain of salt. The job of the media is to create sensationalism so that the news can be spread.
The general issues still are true.
Well, that's the job of the media. Our job is to get GC. Although the issues are true, I would still prefer having absolutely correct articles, so no anti-immigrant could point his/her finger saying "look, immigrants are spreading lies". Just like we bashed them when they were claiming that we pay less taxes. It was a good point to discredit them.
The general issues still are true.
Well, that's the job of the media. Our job is to get GC. Although the issues are true, I would still prefer having absolutely correct articles, so no anti-immigrant could point his/her finger saying "look, immigrants are spreading lies". Just like we bashed them when they were claiming that we pay less taxes. It was a good point to discredit them.
more...
meg_z
11-17 12:54 PM
I can second that. I do have an inactive discover card (I have not activated the new cards they sent to me as I have better cards to use). I have had discover cards for years. Just recently, a person from Discover Card called me to offer me those 5% reward cards. I said sure. Then she asked me if I was a citizen. Then she asked if I was a permanent resident. After two nos, she said then I can't give you the card.
Discover does not issue a credit card if you are not a PR or citizen..even though you have good credit history..
Discover does not issue a credit card if you are not a PR or citizen..even though you have good credit history..
gc_check
06-27 08:17 AM
I understand that there is lot of fear among applicants that USCIS might retrogress the dates interimly sometime in july due to the expected high volume of applications filing in the begining of july.
To minimize the chance of USCIS from taking any such steps, shall we all unite and file the applications on a specific date in july probably on 30th of july? This will accomodate all applicants...so that we shall all be winners and use this opportunity to our advantage instead of competing amongst each other...where only a few will be winners and others will be loosers.
This will also reduce the pressure among applicants , attorneys and doctors.
Can the AILA cooperate? Will there be unity amongst applicants to make this possible??? any ideas ??
Dude, From your previous posts looks like you have already filed and got your receipt notice.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=87755#post87755
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=80880#post80880
Well, this is not a good idea ... and obviously every one is as anxious as others to get their papers filed on time. This does not make sense at all. I read your posting history and notice your posts with GC approval and also about receipt notice for spouse.
What is goin on with you ?
To minimize the chance of USCIS from taking any such steps, shall we all unite and file the applications on a specific date in july probably on 30th of july? This will accomodate all applicants...so that we shall all be winners and use this opportunity to our advantage instead of competing amongst each other...where only a few will be winners and others will be loosers.
This will also reduce the pressure among applicants , attorneys and doctors.
Can the AILA cooperate? Will there be unity amongst applicants to make this possible??? any ideas ??
Dude, From your previous posts looks like you have already filed and got your receipt notice.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=87755#post87755
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=80880#post80880
Well, this is not a good idea ... and obviously every one is as anxious as others to get their papers filed on time. This does not make sense at all. I read your posting history and notice your posts with GC approval and also about receipt notice for spouse.
What is goin on with you ?
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illusions
04-24 05:03 PM
dang....sandy_77... is this for real ? hearing your story i don't even wanna take a chance. Contact IV i'm sure they can help you. This totally doesn't make sense. I wish you luck... sooon! Please keep us posted on what's going on.
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wahwah
06-05 12:46 PM
(d) Form I-140 Petition Must be Approved Prior to a Favorable Determination of a �106(c) AC21 portability request.
this could be read 2 ways...either you need have an approved I-140 prior to filing for portability OR the adjudicator needs to approve the I-140 prior to determining portability.
According to the 2005 memorandum, it was possible to change employers even if the 140 was not approved. But it was clear that an RFE that was not responded to, would deny everything.
Now it appears, they would require an approved 140.
this could be read 2 ways...either you need have an approved I-140 prior to filing for portability OR the adjudicator needs to approve the I-140 prior to determining portability.
According to the 2005 memorandum, it was possible to change employers even if the 140 was not approved. But it was clear that an RFE that was not responded to, would deny everything.
Now it appears, they would require an approved 140.
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diptam
08-16 10:24 AM
I'm also suffering like you for years but doing a RE-FILE just for managing bad odds is not reasonable. If they reject your application - You should be able to resend it from FEDEX/USPS signature and receipt Notice even after Aug 17th.
I'm not a lawyer and i've nothing against Rajaiv Khanna but on a general i'm advising you that " Any lawyer wants their clients case get complicated and convoluted". By doing this you/we are just complicating our case and offering "Money making" potential to already Rich , Wealthy ,Cut throat Lawyers.
Don't you agree ?
Folks,
I am going to share with you what I have done regarding refilling and why I have done that.
Call me a paranoid or something else but the fact of the matter is that time period between July 2nd and Aug 17th is a golden opportunity that may not present itself for several years now.
Though the chances of my application getting rejected due to mail room error is less but in the game of probability everyone of us stand equal chances of getting hit by a thunder bolt.
Just a side note - They install lightning rod on buildings to protect from lightening even though chances are 1 in 700,000. Well, my odds are much worse than that. Hence, I need to protect myself.
Regarding filling multiple 485 applications, Rajeev Khanna has categorically stated in one of his meetings that he is doing it. And we all know he is a person of good reputation.
There are two scenarios I can think about:
a) My July 2nd is accepted: In such cases either my later filled application is automatically rejected or they will send me a letter asking me to choose one.
Someone on one of his/her post had mentioned about stop payment idea. He may have a point. Call USCIS and you will find out that only thing they will do is reject your application, which is what you want if your earlier application is already in process.
Somebody also stated just like what they did in H-1B cases on 04/02/07, they may reject both applications, well; H-1B case was different due to lottery system.
b) My July 2nd application is rejected: Well, I just protected myself from a thunder bolt.
Having suffered in Green Card race for so long, my risk taking capacity has greatly been reduced. I am not advising or urging anyone to take any action. I am just sharing what I did.
I'm not a lawyer and i've nothing against Rajaiv Khanna but on a general i'm advising you that " Any lawyer wants their clients case get complicated and convoluted". By doing this you/we are just complicating our case and offering "Money making" potential to already Rich , Wealthy ,Cut throat Lawyers.
Don't you agree ?
Folks,
I am going to share with you what I have done regarding refilling and why I have done that.
Call me a paranoid or something else but the fact of the matter is that time period between July 2nd and Aug 17th is a golden opportunity that may not present itself for several years now.
Though the chances of my application getting rejected due to mail room error is less but in the game of probability everyone of us stand equal chances of getting hit by a thunder bolt.
Just a side note - They install lightning rod on buildings to protect from lightening even though chances are 1 in 700,000. Well, my odds are much worse than that. Hence, I need to protect myself.
Regarding filling multiple 485 applications, Rajeev Khanna has categorically stated in one of his meetings that he is doing it. And we all know he is a person of good reputation.
There are two scenarios I can think about:
a) My July 2nd is accepted: In such cases either my later filled application is automatically rejected or they will send me a letter asking me to choose one.
Someone on one of his/her post had mentioned about stop payment idea. He may have a point. Call USCIS and you will find out that only thing they will do is reject your application, which is what you want if your earlier application is already in process.
Somebody also stated just like what they did in H-1B cases on 04/02/07, they may reject both applications, well; H-1B case was different due to lottery system.
b) My July 2nd application is rejected: Well, I just protected myself from a thunder bolt.
Having suffered in Green Card race for so long, my risk taking capacity has greatly been reduced. I am not advising or urging anyone to take any action. I am just sharing what I did.
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illinois_alum
09-30 04:53 PM
Hi,
AP E filing needs us to enter teh USCIS office that our application is peninding..
How to get that...My receipt number starts with SRC
A receipt number starting with SRC usually means that the receipt was issued by the Texas Service Center. However, at this moment, the case could be pending at any other center it USCIS transferred it.
Use your receipt number to lookup the case status on the USCIS website. The status will tell you where your case is pending.
Use this link to lookup your case: -
https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/Dashboard.do
AP E filing needs us to enter teh USCIS office that our application is peninding..
How to get that...My receipt number starts with SRC
A receipt number starting with SRC usually means that the receipt was issued by the Texas Service Center. However, at this moment, the case could be pending at any other center it USCIS transferred it.
Use your receipt number to lookup the case status on the USCIS website. The status will tell you where your case is pending.
Use this link to lookup your case: -
https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/Dashboard.do
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kaisersose
08-21 09:37 AM
May be it's true that labor and 140 belongs to the company, but they just can't take money from employees and sell it to someone.
Sure, they can. There was nothing in the law forbidding them from doing that and they abused the system badly which has resulted in a permanent ban on substitution.
You cannot do anything about them using the Labor for someone else. Perhaps you can do something about them taking money from you to file 485 and failing to do that. If you can prove this with a clear paper trail, then you stand a good chance on this one.
Sure, they can. There was nothing in the law forbidding them from doing that and they abused the system badly which has resulted in a permanent ban on substitution.
You cannot do anything about them using the Labor for someone else. Perhaps you can do something about them taking money from you to file 485 and failing to do that. If you can prove this with a clear paper trail, then you stand a good chance on this one.
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spicy_guy
11-07 01:16 PM
Count me in...
My tickets / travel (Nov 18th) is at the brink of cancellation.
RD: 9/2. I raised SR to expedite. Not sure if they accept it.
Contacted congressman and sent them documents.
Need to contact Ombudsman.
Any inputs guys?
My tickets / travel (Nov 18th) is at the brink of cancellation.
RD: 9/2. I raised SR to expedite. Not sure if they accept it.
Contacted congressman and sent them documents.
Need to contact Ombudsman.
Any inputs guys?
more...
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angelfire76
08-10 01:00 PM
The best thing DOL did was to get rid of Labor Subs. Period.
Why:
1. I've paid Social Security taxes + Medicare + Income taxes longer than people who've come here in 2006 and used LS. If I don't get GC (frustration due to retrogression), aren't these guys enjoying (or going to enjoy) benefits that I've paid for, for a longer time.
2. It's really no different than the system in India (or what used to be)for getting everything from telephone, passport etc. where a select few jump ahead in line by either knowing somebody or paying somebody. Isn't that one of the reasons a lot of us decided to move to the US for better(fairer?) opportunities.
3. Isn't this very similar to the falsifying of experience people do to get better positions in a company?
4. Yes, I do have a problem if after slogging my butt off to get a Ph.d, somebody with 3 yrs + 2yr of NIIT comes in through desi consultancy and gets far ahead in line than me. Now before somebody says NIW+ EB1, let me tell you that it's not that easy to get it in the Computer Sciences.
Anyway, having said that it's no time to be divided, but to present an unified front in getting legislation passed that eliminates exactly this kind of discussion. Atleast 20 yrs down the line when we talk about arranging marriages between our children, let how we got GC be a deciding factor in who's got the bigger status :D
Why:
1. I've paid Social Security taxes + Medicare + Income taxes longer than people who've come here in 2006 and used LS. If I don't get GC (frustration due to retrogression), aren't these guys enjoying (or going to enjoy) benefits that I've paid for, for a longer time.
2. It's really no different than the system in India (or what used to be)for getting everything from telephone, passport etc. where a select few jump ahead in line by either knowing somebody or paying somebody. Isn't that one of the reasons a lot of us decided to move to the US for better(fairer?) opportunities.
3. Isn't this very similar to the falsifying of experience people do to get better positions in a company?
4. Yes, I do have a problem if after slogging my butt off to get a Ph.d, somebody with 3 yrs + 2yr of NIIT comes in through desi consultancy and gets far ahead in line than me. Now before somebody says NIW+ EB1, let me tell you that it's not that easy to get it in the Computer Sciences.
Anyway, having said that it's no time to be divided, but to present an unified front in getting legislation passed that eliminates exactly this kind of discussion. Atleast 20 yrs down the line when we talk about arranging marriages between our children, let how we got GC be a deciding factor in who's got the bigger status :D
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vrbest
10-03 04:35 PM
Got my EAD Card. My wife's approved on Oct 1st - My son's approved today.
Took close to 90 days with NSC.
Took close to 90 days with NSC.
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swissgear
10-29 01:36 PM
I think it all started in 2007. As you guys know there were mass applications filed in 2007 from everyone who were current including EB2/ROW/I/C and EB3 /ROW/I/C.
AFAIK, close to 1 million applications were filed during this period if you include 485s , EADs and APs and all by all the folks.
All was fine until this time and then came 2008 where some people who were still on H1 applied for EADs and APs as USCIS started to give EADs for 2 years.
Then in 2008 there was a new rule put in place stating that there need to be an Employer-Employee relationship for the people working on H1, this has created some kind of panic among employees and employers and people started to invoke EADs left and right thinking it was not safe to continue to be on H1.
And since then as the economy started to take toll, people were laid off and employers were not willing to transfer H1s as they were too many queries on H1 extensions and transfers. Everyone thought that it was never to be safe to be on H1 and started to invoke EADs either to change for better jobs and people looking for jobs also invoked EADs as it was easier to move..
Then came Oct 2009 and we saw that not many Labors are getting filed by EB2 ROW applicants and very few employers were filing Labors as the Unemployment was in 2 digits % wise and were not able to convince DOS on non availability of citizen/PRs workers to do same or similar jobs.
Also most of the Labors were audited and it took close to a year to clear all that backlog before people were eventually approved in EB2-ROW applicants, until we saw July visa bulletin which raised our hopes.Based on the spill over they were supposed to approve close more than 40k EB2 I/C applications in the last 3 months of the year.
But there was a twist in their understanding. As most of the people who got EADs in 2008 were ripe for renewals(this includes EB-2 ROW/I/C, EB-3 ROW/I/C).And hence applied in mass for their renewals. This caused a huge delay in approving the EAD renewals and you have already heard sad stories about it..
Out of all this, All I can say is that USCIS was working harder than ever during the past 3-4 months to approve so many cases and hence I assume there is a genuine workload to clear all those cases.
Based on the approval trends, I think they have already allocated visas to the applicants who were current and started to approve as soon as the case has been looked into unlike what they used to follow of requesting visas after final verification.
Remember USCIS cannot give an excuse of not utilizing all the visas for the current year and blame on FBI name checks and all , as they had 3 sweet years to adjudicate the applications. And I guess they were under tremendous pressure to approve the cases by Sept 2010 month end.
Just my Honest Opinion.
AFAIK, close to 1 million applications were filed during this period if you include 485s , EADs and APs and all by all the folks.
All was fine until this time and then came 2008 where some people who were still on H1 applied for EADs and APs as USCIS started to give EADs for 2 years.
Then in 2008 there was a new rule put in place stating that there need to be an Employer-Employee relationship for the people working on H1, this has created some kind of panic among employees and employers and people started to invoke EADs left and right thinking it was not safe to continue to be on H1.
And since then as the economy started to take toll, people were laid off and employers were not willing to transfer H1s as they were too many queries on H1 extensions and transfers. Everyone thought that it was never to be safe to be on H1 and started to invoke EADs either to change for better jobs and people looking for jobs also invoked EADs as it was easier to move..
Then came Oct 2009 and we saw that not many Labors are getting filed by EB2 ROW applicants and very few employers were filing Labors as the Unemployment was in 2 digits % wise and were not able to convince DOS on non availability of citizen/PRs workers to do same or similar jobs.
Also most of the Labors were audited and it took close to a year to clear all that backlog before people were eventually approved in EB2-ROW applicants, until we saw July visa bulletin which raised our hopes.Based on the spill over they were supposed to approve close more than 40k EB2 I/C applications in the last 3 months of the year.
But there was a twist in their understanding. As most of the people who got EADs in 2008 were ripe for renewals(this includes EB-2 ROW/I/C, EB-3 ROW/I/C).And hence applied in mass for their renewals. This caused a huge delay in approving the EAD renewals and you have already heard sad stories about it..
Out of all this, All I can say is that USCIS was working harder than ever during the past 3-4 months to approve so many cases and hence I assume there is a genuine workload to clear all those cases.
Based on the approval trends, I think they have already allocated visas to the applicants who were current and started to approve as soon as the case has been looked into unlike what they used to follow of requesting visas after final verification.
Remember USCIS cannot give an excuse of not utilizing all the visas for the current year and blame on FBI name checks and all , as they had 3 sweet years to adjudicate the applications. And I guess they were under tremendous pressure to approve the cases by Sept 2010 month end.
Just my Honest Opinion.
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dpp
07-19 02:05 PM
Q : Must an H-1B alien be working at all times?
As long as the employer/employee relationship exists, an H-1B alien is still in status. An H-1B alien may work in full or part-time employment and remain in status. An H-1B alien may also be on vacation, sick/maternity/paternity leave, on strike, or otherwise inactive without affecting his or her status.
Check this.
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=a62bec897643f010VgnVCM1000000ecd190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=1847c9ee2f82b010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD
I think desi3933 is correct. It is the employees responsibility to maintain the status and all the employee can do is to sue the employer for the pay. Even I am not sure about 30 day rule, but employee should be getting payed on H1B. Also it may only be necessary to prove the legal status since the last entry.
As long as the employer/employee relationship exists, an H-1B alien is still in status. An H-1B alien may work in full or part-time employment and remain in status. An H-1B alien may also be on vacation, sick/maternity/paternity leave, on strike, or otherwise inactive without affecting his or her status.
Check this.
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=a62bec897643f010VgnVCM1000000ecd190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=1847c9ee2f82b010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD
I think desi3933 is correct. It is the employees responsibility to maintain the status and all the employee can do is to sue the employer for the pay. Even I am not sure about 30 day rule, but employee should be getting payed on H1B. Also it may only be necessary to prove the legal status since the last entry.
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pappu
12-31 01:48 PM
I think as a next step I will contact my Congressman after the Feb dates are released and we are still current. Do you know if it makes more sense to approach Congressman or Senator for this ? Also should I approach only 1 rep like 1 Congressman or approach both my district congressman and 2 state senators ?
We are even more screwed because since our dates are current we can not even get 2 Yr EAD or 3 yr H1 extension but you have to renew both annually.
Please share your experiences.
1) It all depends on where you live and who is your lawmaker. You need to look at lawmakers profile. Are they in any committee etc?
2) If you have already established good relations with the office due to IV work, it may become easy. Since you are an old IV member, and you may have already visited their office for state chapter work,IV action items and made calls, you may contact them now for your application status.
We are even more screwed because since our dates are current we can not even get 2 Yr EAD or 3 yr H1 extension but you have to renew both annually.
Please share your experiences.
1) It all depends on where you live and who is your lawmaker. You need to look at lawmakers profile. Are they in any committee etc?
2) If you have already established good relations with the office due to IV work, it may become easy. Since you are an old IV member, and you may have already visited their office for state chapter work,IV action items and made calls, you may contact them now for your application status.
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drona
08-31 08:37 PM
Please post your request on the following thread and a group of volunteers will organize your transportation. Glad you could make it!
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=12462
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=12462
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saketkapur
06-09 06:35 PM
http://imminfo.com/Newsletter/2009-AILA/Likely_visa_bulletin_cutoff_date_movement.html
Likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement
Information provided at the 2009 AILA Annual Conference gives us some insight into likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement over the next year. Historically, the INS/CIS have treated filing backlog information as a matter of national security - refusing to release any information. Recently, however, cracks have started to appear in that wall.
We know that the 2007 filing surge resulted in an enormous number of cases submitted to the CIS. The actual number of new I-485s filed is unknown, but estimates range from 350,000 to 500,000. We also know that the CIS, having the fear of God put into them by the State Department in 2007, finally increased their level of production and began adjudicating cases at a pace sufficient to use up each year's quota and not waste any allocated visa numbers through non-use.
At this year's conference, the CIS representatives made several statements which, if true, give us hope for a return to sanity soon. They alleged that they have completed enough EB I-485 cases this year to exhaust the EB quota (140,000). They also alleged that they will soon have completed the "pre-adjudication" of another "110,000 to 120,000" cases to be used against the quota for the next fiscal year (Oct. 1, 2009 - Sept. 30, 2010). Finally, they represented that these adjudication would "pretty much exhaust" the inventory of pending EB I-485 cases at the TSC and NSC.
If these statements are true, then the end of the current mess is in sight.
If the CIS really has wiped out its processing backlog, then when the "pre-adjudicated" cases are given visa numbers in the next fiscal year, cutoff dates should advance rapidly. At a minimum, we should see them return to February 2007 levels, if not closer.
Implicit in this recital of statistics by the CIS personnel is the likelihood that they denied a truly massive number of pending I-485 applications. Before anyone panics, those denials should have been sent out already and are not out there just waiting to ruin someone's day. Only by assuming a very large number of denials does the math make any sense. Without them, you cannot reconcile the large volume of filings with the volume of approvals.
Once these pending cases are closed out, the known "demand" for EB visas will be much smaller and the Visa Office will be able to move priority dates up quickly; in some cases by years.
Another factor to be taken into account is the number of people who have lost their jobs between August 17, 2007 and whenever the cutoff dates cross that chronological line again. In years past, if there were 100,000 applicants with priority dates between August, 2007 and today, we could expect to see at least 90,000 applications. Today, with the economy being what it is, I think the figure is probably closer to 50,000. These are all people who were not eligible for AC21 because they had not filed for adjustment of status. If true, this means that cutoff dates will advance more rapidly than normal after the "2007 deluge" cases are resolved.
Of course, all of this becomes academic if CIR is passed. In that case, all priority dates will become "current" overnight and remain that way for years.
The State Department official at the AILA conference said that we can likely expect to see the following cutoff dates in the October, 2009 Visa Bulletin:
EB2 Worldwide: Current
EB2 China and India: Outlook is "grim" and there may be further retrogressions until later in the fiscal year.
EB3 Worldwide: June 1, 2005
EB3 China: March 1, 2003
EB3 India: November 1, 2001
EB3 Mexico: March 1, 2003
These estimates are just that - estimates. They are, however, estimates from the Department of State.
Where numbers move after October 1st will depend entirely upon the demand presented by the CIS. If, in fact, they have pre-adjudicated as many as 120,000 EB AOS cases, then it is unlikely that we will see much additional forward movement until the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (July - Sept., 2010). As discussed previously, however, once we get over this large bump in the road next year, we can expect to see a rapid advance in cutoff date movement.
Copyright � 2009 The Gotcher Law Group, PC - All Rights Reserved
Likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement
Information provided at the 2009 AILA Annual Conference gives us some insight into likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement over the next year. Historically, the INS/CIS have treated filing backlog information as a matter of national security - refusing to release any information. Recently, however, cracks have started to appear in that wall.
We know that the 2007 filing surge resulted in an enormous number of cases submitted to the CIS. The actual number of new I-485s filed is unknown, but estimates range from 350,000 to 500,000. We also know that the CIS, having the fear of God put into them by the State Department in 2007, finally increased their level of production and began adjudicating cases at a pace sufficient to use up each year's quota and not waste any allocated visa numbers through non-use.
At this year's conference, the CIS representatives made several statements which, if true, give us hope for a return to sanity soon. They alleged that they have completed enough EB I-485 cases this year to exhaust the EB quota (140,000). They also alleged that they will soon have completed the "pre-adjudication" of another "110,000 to 120,000" cases to be used against the quota for the next fiscal year (Oct. 1, 2009 - Sept. 30, 2010). Finally, they represented that these adjudication would "pretty much exhaust" the inventory of pending EB I-485 cases at the TSC and NSC.
If these statements are true, then the end of the current mess is in sight.
If the CIS really has wiped out its processing backlog, then when the "pre-adjudicated" cases are given visa numbers in the next fiscal year, cutoff dates should advance rapidly. At a minimum, we should see them return to February 2007 levels, if not closer.
Implicit in this recital of statistics by the CIS personnel is the likelihood that they denied a truly massive number of pending I-485 applications. Before anyone panics, those denials should have been sent out already and are not out there just waiting to ruin someone's day. Only by assuming a very large number of denials does the math make any sense. Without them, you cannot reconcile the large volume of filings with the volume of approvals.
Once these pending cases are closed out, the known "demand" for EB visas will be much smaller and the Visa Office will be able to move priority dates up quickly; in some cases by years.
Another factor to be taken into account is the number of people who have lost their jobs between August 17, 2007 and whenever the cutoff dates cross that chronological line again. In years past, if there were 100,000 applicants with priority dates between August, 2007 and today, we could expect to see at least 90,000 applications. Today, with the economy being what it is, I think the figure is probably closer to 50,000. These are all people who were not eligible for AC21 because they had not filed for adjustment of status. If true, this means that cutoff dates will advance more rapidly than normal after the "2007 deluge" cases are resolved.
Of course, all of this becomes academic if CIR is passed. In that case, all priority dates will become "current" overnight and remain that way for years.
The State Department official at the AILA conference said that we can likely expect to see the following cutoff dates in the October, 2009 Visa Bulletin:
EB2 Worldwide: Current
EB2 China and India: Outlook is "grim" and there may be further retrogressions until later in the fiscal year.
EB3 Worldwide: June 1, 2005
EB3 China: March 1, 2003
EB3 India: November 1, 2001
EB3 Mexico: March 1, 2003
These estimates are just that - estimates. They are, however, estimates from the Department of State.
Where numbers move after October 1st will depend entirely upon the demand presented by the CIS. If, in fact, they have pre-adjudicated as many as 120,000 EB AOS cases, then it is unlikely that we will see much additional forward movement until the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (July - Sept., 2010). As discussed previously, however, once we get over this large bump in the road next year, we can expect to see a rapid advance in cutoff date movement.
Copyright � 2009 The Gotcher Law Group, PC - All Rights Reserved
dingdong12
06-17 05:03 PM
I support this
thescadaman
06-16 10:51 PM
I will support this effort.
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